Friday 31 July 2020

Winnipeg vs Calgary: 2019-20 Playoff Preview (according to Chief)

I did one of these before on the infamous HFBoards in preparation for the Jets playoff series against the Blues, and somehow came correct in my prediction of "Blues in 6", so I thought I would do one of these again for the very weird COVID-19 Stanley Cup Qualifiers starting tomorrow (somehow).

Calgary Flames




FWD Line Combos


DEF Pairings


Extras: Michael Stone
Opted out: Travis Hamonic

Goaltending



Winnipeg Jets



DEF Pairing Combos


Goaltending



Graphical Comparisons



Storylines

Hellebuyck versus... who knows?

It is obvious to everyone that Hellebuyck is the number one, two, and maybe three reason for why the Winnipeg Jets currently find themselves participating in the 2019-20 Post-Season (though the collapse of all California teams at the same time certainly helped as well), as he dominated nearly every "advanced" goalie metric there is for the entirety of the regular season. Their opponent, the Calgary Flames, leaned on one goalie earlier in the season but found themselves going back-and-forth between David Rittich and Cam Talbot as the season went on, playing whoever had the hot hand. Unfortunately, neither of them declared themselves as the true number one, and even going into this series versus Winnipeg, both goalies had been given the chance by HC Geoff Ward in their exhibition game against Edmonton to make themselves the definitive netminder.

Hellebuyck, on the other hand, has had to face an onslaught - and has lived to tell the tale on route to a likely Vezina and probably somewhere between 4th and 6th for the Hart as well. The Jets have given up league worst numbers in terms of most (if not all) Expected Goal metrics out there, and even leading up to the pause, he continued to face shots from directly in front of him all the way through to the slot and through the blue line as well:


Even through the last 10 games played before the pause, the Jets continued to give up a sky-high 2.84 xGA/60, though their CA/60 dropped to a respectable 54.89. The acquisition of Dylan DeMelo is a key reason why, as in his ~60 minutes with Josh Morrissey, the pairing posted the Jets' best CF% of 54.76% - though, their xGF% was a poor 45.64% thanks to a sky high xGA/60 of 2.92. But if DeMelo can carry Beaulieu to a 58.44% xGF% in nearly equal minutes, one would hope that a (healthier) Morrissey can perform as well, if not better, for those metrics.

Nevertheless, the Jets may not be fighting for goals in this upcoming Qualifier series - but, they'll also have to deal with some issues of their own in front of their outstanding netminder...

The Tkachuk Factor

I've tweeted about this a bit, but the X-Factor for the Flames in this series (and all future series) will be the play of Matthew Tkachuk. He was the team's leader in GAR thanks to his even strength offense (which suffered in xGAR, but still remained 4th overall among his teammates), and in terms of RAPMs, Tkachuk also leads his team from 2017-20 in terms of Corsi +/- per 60 at a quite outstanding 5.75 per 60, and also posts respectively positive rates for Goals +/- per 60 (0.058 for 8th) and xG +/- per 60 (0.158 for 4th). Thanks to HockeyViz's isolations, it is easily understood how he creates a +10% impact on even-strength offence thanks to the damage he creates in or around the opposing crease:


Of course, it is not just the offence, but the physical antics he creates - none more so documented than the now revived Battle of Alberta:


While you can expect Lowry to probably take a portion of that match-up (he and Scheifele roughly had the same TOI against Tkachuk in the Heritage Classic this year, and in the 2018-19 season Lowry saw the majority of the TOI against Tkachuk in the final 2 of 3 games against the Flames), gone are the likes of Trouba, Byfuglien, Chiarot, and Tanev who likely would have a short tolerance for Tkachuk's physicality. Your likely comparison to these more physical players is Beaulieu, who certainly did not shy away from a big hit in the Jets' exhibition game against the Canucks, but will probably toil around on the third pairing for too long to not see much of Tkachuk anyway.

Maurice was quoted as saying that Tkachuk's shenanigans will "only [be] an issue if it becomes an issue" - in other words, the Jets will probably be reminded to not throw the first punch. With a penalty kill that posted near-worst rate metrics in GA/60 and FA/60 - but were only shorthanded a league second best 174 times and spent a league best 279min on the kill - it will be important for the Jets to not allow Hellebuyck to get more shellacked than he already does at 5v5 by taking retaliatory penalties against Tkachuk.

Chief's Final Take

I wrote last year that "the playoffs are a different animal entirely, and nothing is 100% set in stone nor can be reliably predicted based on numbers" - and this year is no different. With nearly 4 months in-between games played for either team, and the Jets now at the healthiest they've been all season, the team's performance could be dramatically different in August in comparison to what we have seen back in November or December, which was extraordinarily bad. Even in the one exhibition game, several Twitter people noted that the Jets had a different emphasis on defensive aggressiveness, leading to goals from Poolman and Kulikov well into the offensive zone - a stark difference from the tracked numbers where the Jets ranked in the bottom half of breaks-up at the blueline (according to Corey Sznajder's tracked data) as they relied on the third forward back more than the defenders stepping up at the blueline.

Meanwhile, for Calgary, you can argue that the drum keeps on beating for their team. They've had rare or little injury issues, but have dealt with off-the-ice issues in terms of moving on from Bill Peters to Geoff Ward, the diagnosis of ALS to Assistant GM Chris Snow, the passing of long-time president Ken King, and more. Add on that they were knocked out by the youthful Colorado Avalanche after racking up 50 victories and 107 points last season (with mixed results this season after), and the Flames look eager to prove doubters wrong.

However, the main difference could end up being in net. Hellebuyck looked like he hasn't missed a beat in his Vezina season in turning away the likes of Elias Petterson and Bo Horvat in Wednesday's exhibition match, while Talbot struggled early in giving up two goals but calmed himself down as his exhibition game went on, and Rittich eventually allowed two goals against Edmonton's star players as well.

All that being said, the story seems all too familiar to the Jets when facing the eventual Stanley Cup Champions last year - we've been waiting for the metaphorical switch to flip for our star players in terms of effort in their own zone (looking at one Mark Scheifele and Blake Wheeler) while Maurice opts to limit the bleeding as much as possible through Adam Lowry as the patchwork defence does what it can. Oh, and don't forget the Power Play issues near the end of the season where a five-game sample saw the Jets sporting a dreadful ~52 FF/60. Though, the Calgary Flames are no St. Louis Blues - whereas Berube's Blues terrorized the Jets in quick responses from their lineup depth, the Flames' bottom six are not as terrifying from a goal-scoring perspective (though may employ some of the physical nastiness).

I do believe the Jets will end up winning this series (and lose out on the Lafreniere sweepstakes as a result), but it will be primarily on the back of Hellebuyck in squeaking by some possible low scoring games. That will probably be as far as the Jets go, however - but against the Flames, you can mark me down as Jets in 5.
at

1 comment:

Subscribe to: Post Comments (Atom)