Wow, who knew we would have been here? After sweeping the Oilers? Against the Canadiens? 2021 has certainly been a wild year thus far.
Montreal Canadiens
FWD Lines Combos
Evans-Danault-Gallagher (insufficient time together during regular season)
Byron-Kotkaniemi-Anderson (insufficient time together during regular season)
Perry-Staal-Armia (insufficient time together during regular season)
Extras: Tatar, Lehkonen, Frolik
DEF Pairings
Kulak-Gustafsson (insufficient time together during regular season)
Extras: Merrill, Romanov, Ouellet
Winnipeg Jets
FWD Lines
Extras: Harkins, Vesalainen, Toninato
DEF Pairings
Extras: Benn, Heinola, Niku
Graphical Comparisons
Storylines
Hellebuyck (+ Team Defence) for Conn Smythe
Only the first round has finished for the Stanley Cup Playoffs, but some stellar forwards have already made the difference for their teams making it to the second round, and are likely to continue: Nikita Kucherov (and his miraculous recovery), David Pastrnak, and of course Nathan MacKinnon. However, if the Jets continue to make noise as they have already done by sweeping the Edmonton Oilers, it will likely be on the back of their most likely Conn Smythe candidate, Connor Hellebuyck.
According to Evolving-Hockey, Hellebuyck saw 15.3 xGA in 4 games at all strengths. For comparison’s sake, Marc-Andre Fleury saw 14.96 xGA in 7 games versus the Minnesota Wild. He leads all goaltenders in xGA/GP at 3.83, with Vasilevskiy (3.28) and Saros (3.08) below him. Hellebuyck finished all games with a positive Goals Saved Above Expectation (GSAx): 1.95, 2.68, 1.25, and 0.95. In that third game alone, even with 4 actual goals against, Hellebuyck faced 5.69 (score and venue adjusted) expected goals against.
A sweep is a sweep, but when we actually look back on the series, we find that the Jets spent very few minutes leading the Oilers. In Game 1, Toninato’s goal at 9:14 of the 3rd period meant that Winnipeg spent the remaining 10:36 leading the Oilers. In Game 2, it was a tied affair until Stastny’s OT GWG. Winnipeg never led in Game 3, only winning thanks to a stunning comeback. And in Game 4, the teams traded leads back-and-forth, and the Jets spent 9:06 leading the Oilers of the course of 106 actual minutes in that 3OT game. Hellebuyck’s saves at all points of any game were crucial in the outcomes leading to a sweep.
That being said, while most hockey public models see it that way, some private ones don’t, instead crediting the team’s defence. Kevin Woodley (@KevinisInGoal) pointed to Clear Sight Analytics (@csahockey) in that a lot of EDM’s shots were low quality, with the Oilers only generating 7 slot line shots the entire series. In LogiQBets (based off of SportslogiQ, which the Winnipeg Jets uses as their advanced data provider) Game 4 preview, they had both Winnipeg and Edmonton at 2.58 expected goals against each, with Hellebuyck only at 0.85 GSAx (though was at second in the league at that point in time).
Looking at HockeyViz’s shot maps for the series, we can see some truth to that. While there is a boom of red directly in front of Winnipeg’s net, which were either rebounds or Oilers pushing to the front of the net from below the goalline, there is a considerable lack of shots in the inner slot and the left faceoff dot – speaking truth to the analysis hidden away from public eye (though perhaps understating the danger of shots inside of or immediately in front of the blue paint).
Even in Game 3, which Evolving-Hockey says that Hellebuyck faced 5.69 xGA, Corey Sznajder’s (@ShutdownLine) tracking of Game 3 reporting only 1 cross-slot pass and 3 center lane assists for Edmonton, with the Jets actually getting more of each.
In the end, your first assumptions about this series was likely the correct one: for the Jets to win against the Oilers, they had to shutdown McDavid and Draisaitl. Once Tippett moved his top two players to the same line, it made the Jets job “easier”, if by easier you mean Hellebuyck doing what he can as his team’s own top line got hemmed early and often. Mike Smith also had a great series, other than the absolute dud that happened in the later stages of Game 3.
No matter what happens in the later rounds, however, both Hellebuyck (and the team defence) will have to continue to be great against their next opponents – stopping two superstars on one line is a feat in and of itself, but if they proceed to face one of Colorado or Vegas, they’ll need to stop a whole lot more than just two players.
Enough about defence... what about offence (again)?
I spoke a lot in my last rambling’s storyline about the lack of good offence being generated by the Winnipeg Jets without one Nikolaj Ehlers (and even just immediately before his injury), barely getting a 2.0 xGF/60 in that stretch to end the season. It's hard not to overstate just how important he was to the Winnipeg Jets adding an offensive threat in their series against Edmonton. In looking at a simple With-or-Without-You (according to NaturalStatTrick.com) with Nikolaj Ehlers and Paul Stastny, in the 2GP with Ehlers, the second line was generating 63.86 CF/60 and 2.20 xGF/60. The second line without Ehlers (in mostly the 2GP before his return) saw that second line generated only a 43.65 CF/60 and a 1.06 xGF/60 (though funnily enough, the actual GF/60 is pretty much even at 1.73 and 1.88 respectively).
Without that second line, the only line putting up any sort of impressive offensive metrics was (which I'm sure is surprising to some) the top line of Connor-Scheifele-Wheeler. While McDavid saw 50% of all his 5v5 minutes against Scheifele (and nearly the other 50% to Lowry) and tore that top line apart in metrics other than goals for, the Scheifele line (according to Evolving-Hockey) was still able to tick at a 58.14 CF/60 and 1.98 xGF/60, which is honestly respectable given how it looked at times. When looking at Sznajder's data more closely, we can see over the 3GP tracked that they did the heavy lifting in both shot contributions and zone entries:
In the end, the Winnipeg Jets offence as a whole mostly ended up to be shots from the top of the blue line or faceoff circles, with the occasional shot directly in front of Mike Smith:
The Jets are now about to enter a series where Montreal's defensive pairings were bruising and stifling in the regular season, and managed to shut down the (choking) Leafs in three games straight to take the series. In their 7GP, their top pairing of Chiarot-Weber got drilled for 3.14 xGA/60, but only saw 1.34 actual GA/60. Some of that magic belongs to Carey Price, but if they keep the Jets to the outside and closer to the boards, the series could get physical and punishing quite fast, and the Jets may have a repeat of their shot heat map above against the Oilers.
Chief's Final Take
I'm submitting this before the buzzer, so excuse the rush. But seriously, did anyone expect the Jets to sweep the Oilers, and the Canadiens to come back down from 3-1 to win the series against the Maple Leafs? Well, maybe some of you for that latter one because of memes, but both were huge surprises no matter which way you cut it.
Most people are surmising this series as a battle of rest versus momentum, and Connor Hellebuyck versus Carey Price. They're mostly right - MTL has had a tumultuous season in more ways than one, with a change in their Head Coach, a surprisingly resurgent (but also maybe expected at this point) Carey Price in the playoffs, and PDO rollercoasters that would make park-goers blush.
I think the real battle lies in terms of Ehlers-Stastny-Dubois vs Price and whoever MTL matches them up against. It's probably a given that Danault gets the responsibility against the first line with Scheifele, and that will likely end up as a possession battle heavily in MTL's favour, though Kyle Connor can score from distance with a bit of open room to nearly make up for it. All of that second line looked or were injured in that series against Edmonton, but did not have to battle much against the likes of the Oilers' depth - that is a completely different story against the Canadiens, who have much more balance throughout their lineup, both in terms of forwards and defensive pairings. But if the Jets' second line is truly healthy, especially one underperforming Pierre-Luc Dubois... watch out.
My prediction? I see this going 7 games, likely trading wins in each team's arena - thus, Jets in 7. Who would have thought that barely staving off dropping from 2nd to 4th would have given Jets some needed home ice advantage? (So long as Maurice does not galaxy brain his matchups...)
It's gonna be a really dull game offensively for both teams that ends up being a goalie duel though, I think. That also gives advantage to the Jets who got some much needed rest - but don't ignore the momentum and fuel that the Canadiens got from sweeping the media's beloved Leafs, and will look to do the same against for the rest of Canada joining the Jets bandwagon.
Enjoy the second round...
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